🏡 November 2025 Market Report: Returning to Seasonality

The fall real estate market is finally looking normal again—and that’s a good thing.

After months of steady increases in inventory, we’re seeing a small but meaningful shift that signals the return of something we haven’t talked about in a while: seasonality.

Let’s break it down.

📊 Inventory: Slight Dip After Six Months of Growth

We always start with the big picture—inventory, or how many homes are available right now.

• Current Active Listings: 2,423 homes

• Month-over-Month Change: ⬇️ 2.42%

This marks the first decline in inventory in six months. For half a year, the number of available homes had been climbing steadily—but now, as we head into November, December, and January, we’re seeing that trend flatten out.

That’s not a red flag.
It’s a return to normal.

Fewer sellers list their homes during the holidays, so a modest pullback in inventory this time of year is perfectly natural—and even healthy. The market is reestablishing its seasonal rhythm.

🏠 Under Contracts: A Surprisingly Strong Fall Market

Here’s where it gets interesting:
Under contracts (pendings) are up 2.75% compared to 30 days ago.

That means more homes are going under contract now than a month ago—right as we move deeper into the fall market.

Why the uptick?
Interest rates recently hit a one-year low, which gave many buyers the confidence to jump back in after months of waiting. When rates dip, even slightly, the ripple effect is immediate.

📈 Bottom line: Buyer activity this fall has been strong.

💵 Closed Sales & Market Type: Still a Seller’s Market (But More Balanced)

We did see a small drop in closed sales over the past 30 days—but remember, those closings mostly reflect contracts written in late summer. As we transition fully into fall, that softening is right on cue.

Months of Inventory: 2.46 (we’ll call it 2.5)

Here’s how that metric defines market type:

• 1–3 months: Seller’s Market

• 3–5 months: Balanced Market

• 5+ months: Buyer’s Market

At 2.5 months, we’re still in a seller’s market—but much closer to balance than the hyper-competitive days we saw a few years ago.

💰 Pricing Power: Sellers Still in Control

Even as the market normalizes, sellers remain in a strong position.

• Average List-to-Close Price: 99.5%

That means, on average, sellers are achieving within half a percent of their asking price. At the same time, we’re seeing a rise in seller contributions to buyer closing costs, which helps the market feel a bit more neutral.

Right now, both sides are finding wins:
✅ Sellers are still getting their price.
✅ Buyers are gaining a little flexibility and negotiation room.

⏳ Days on Market: What to Expect This Fall

How long is it taking homes to sell?

• Average Days on Market: 54 days

• Median Days on Market: 31 days

The median gives a clearer picture since outliers (like overpriced or poorly presented listings) skew the average.

For Fredericksburg and surrounding communities—the median price point is around $575,000.

If your home is in the $500,000–$625,000 range and is well-priced and shows beautifully, expect about 30 days on the market before going under contract.

A few nuances:

• Luxury homes typically take longer.

• Lower price points can move faster.

• Presentation and pricing remain key.

👀 Showings: Fewer Browsers, More Serious Buyers

Showings have slowed compared to previous years—currently averaging about 2.5 per week per listing.

In past hot markets, we saw 9+ per week, but this shift isn’t bad news—it’s efficiency.

The buyers touring homes now are motivated, qualified, and ready to move.
We’re seeing fewer “just looking” shoppers and more people making offers when they find the right fit.

🍂 Takeaway: A Healthy, Seasonal Market

After several unpredictable years, this fall feels refreshingly familiar.
We’re returning to the natural rhythm of real estate, where inventory dips with the holidays and serious buyers stay active through the year’s end.

✅ Sellers still hold pricing power.
✅ Buyers are benefiting from improved rates and more negotiation leverage.
✅ The market is balanced, steady, and sustainable heading into winter.

💬 Thinking About Making a Move? 

Whether you’re considering buying before rates rise again or prepping your home for a spring sale, the 1245 Team can help you plan your next step strategically.

📅 Get Instant Home Value - Click here → https://bit.ly/47SyDjw

Written by:
Shawn Derrick & Nate Johnson
📍 The 1245 Team – Keller Williams Realty
Serving Northern Virginia, Fredericksburg & Maryland

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