May 2026 Housing Market Update: More Homes for Sale… But Buyers Are Still Paying Over Asking
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The real estate market across the Fredericksburg corridor is shifting—but not in the way many people think.
Yes, inventory increased.
Yes, buyers have more choices.
But homes are still selling fast, prices are still rising, and well-prepared sellers are still getting over asking price.
If you live in Fredericksburg, Stafford, Spotsylvania, Prince William, or Fauquier County, here are the local numbers and national trends you actually need to understand before making a move this summer.
The Biggest Local Headline Right Now
Inventory Jumped 14% in 30 Days
In April, our region had around 1,880 homes for sale.
By May, that number climbed to over 2,150 homes.
That’s a 14% increase in just 30 days.
For buyers, this is important because it finally means more options.
Earlier this spring, many buyers felt boxed out of the market with limited inventory and intense competition. While competition still exists, buyers now have more opportunities to compare homes and make smarter decisions.
But here’s the key:
👉 More inventory does NOT mean the market is crashing.
Not even close.
Homes Are Still Selling Over Asking Price
One of the most surprising numbers from last month:
Homes sold for 100.1% of asking price on average.
That means the average home sold slightly OVER list price.
Even with more homes hitting the market, buyers are still aggressively competing for homes that are:
- Properly priced
- Well presented
- Move-in ready
- Professionally marketed
This tells us demand is still extremely strong across our region.
The buyers are there.
They’re just becoming more selective.
Homes Are Selling Faster Again
Another important trend:
Median days on market dropped to 17 days.
That’s down from 19 days previously.
Homes are actually selling faster.
Now, “fast” does not necessarily mean the chaos we saw in 2021.
But it DOES mean buyers are prepared.
Today’s buyers are:
- Fully pre-approved
- Watching the market closely
- Ready to act quickly when the right home appears
For sellers, this is a strong sign.
For buyers, it means hesitation can absolutely cost you a house.
Prices Continue to Rise
Average home prices in our market climbed again last month.
The average sales price is now just under $595,000.
The good news?
This isn’t the runaway appreciation we experienced during the pandemic years.
Instead, we’re seeing slower, healthier appreciation—which is exactly what a stable housing market should look like.
The Number Most People Don’t Understand
Here’s the metric that explains almost everything happening right now:
We only have 1.2 months of inventory.
What does that mean?
If no new homes came on the market tomorrow, every available home in our region would likely sell within about five weeks.
A balanced market usually has:
We are nowhere near that.
So while headlines may talk about a “slowing market,” the reality locally is much different.
This is still very much a seller’s market.
Three Major Myths We Keep Hearing
Myth #1: “I Should Wait for the Market to Crash”
Right now:
- Prices are still rising
- Homes are selling over asking
- Inventory remains historically low
That is NOT a market falling off a cliff.
Many people who waited over the past few years hoping for a crash are now dealing with:
- Higher home prices
- Higher rates
- Reduced affordability
Waiting has cost many buyers far more than they expected.
Myth #2: “Rates Are Too High to Buy”
Mortgage rates are currently hovering around the low 6% range.
Historically speaking?
That’s actually fairly normal.
The ultra-low 3% interest rates during COVID were the anomaly—not today’s rates.
A phrase we say often:
Marry the house. Date the rate.
If rates drop later, you can refinance.
But you cannot go back and buy at yesterday’s prices.
Myth #3: “I Missed the Best Time to Sell”
No—you didn’t.
Homes are still:
- Selling in about 17 days
- Receiving strong offers
- Moving quickly when priced correctly
Yes, buyers have more choices than they did earlier this year.
But inventory is still historically low overall.
The homes sitting on the market today usually have one of three problems:
- Overpriced
- Poor presentation
- Weak marketing
Advice for Buyers Right Now
1. Get Fully Pre-Approved
Not pre-qualified.
There’s a major difference.
In today’s market, sellers want buyers who are fully vetted and ready to close.
2. Know Your Top Budget Number
If your top number is $700,000, don’t emotionally stretch beyond that.
Having a clear ceiling helps buyers avoid regret and financial stress later.
3. Seriously Consider New Construction
This may be the best opportunity in the market right now.
Many builders are offering:
- Rate buydowns
- Closing cost assistance
- Incentives that resale sellers simply cannot compete with
Some buyers are lowering monthly payments by several hundred dollars through builder incentives alone.
4. Work With Someone Hyper-Local
Real estate is extremely local.
Pricing in Stafford is different than Spotsylvania.
Spotsylvania is different than Prince William.
Prince William is different than Fauquier.
What’s considered a great deal in one area could be overpaying in another.
Local expertise matters more than ever.
Advice for Sellers Right Now
Your Home Is Probably Worth More Than You Think
But buyers are also becoming more selective.
There are now hundreds more homes on the market compared to last month.
That means your home MUST stand out.
1. Price Correctly From Day One
Overpriced homes sit.
And when homes sit:
- Buyers become skeptical
- Showings slow down
- Price reductions follow
- Final sales prices often end up lower
The market is rewarding realistic pricing—and punishing aspirational pricing.
2. Invest in Presentation & Marketing
Today’s successful listings are using:
- Professional photography
- Aerial drone footage
- 3D walkthroughs
- Staging
- Decluttering
- Fresh paint
- Pre-home inspections
Presentation matters more now because buyers have more options to compare.
3. Have Your Next Move Planned
If your home is properly priced, you could receive offers quickly.
Before listing, sellers should already understand:
- Where they’re moving
- Whether they’ll buy first or sell first
- What timeline works best for them
Preparation creates leverage.
National Headlines Affecting Our Market
Interest Rates Are Likely Staying Higher Longer
The Federal Reserve recently held rates steady while inflation remains above target levels.
Most forecasts currently expect mortgage rates to stay roughly between:
The “return to 4% rates” likely isn’t happening anytime soon.
Waiting for Lower Rates May Cost More Than Buyers Think
Here’s a real example:
A buyer waiting six months for slightly lower rates may save a small amount monthly…
…but if home prices increase another $10,000+, the long-term math often no longer works in their favor.
That’s why many buyers are choosing to:
- Buy now
- Refinance later if rates improve
New Construction Is Quietly Becoming One of the Best Deals Available
Nationally, many builders are aggressively offering incentives.
That includes:
- Temporary rate buydowns
- Closing cost credits
- Financing incentives
For buyers focused on monthly affordability, these programs can make a massive difference.
Final Thoughts: What This Market Really Looks Like
We are not in the frenzy of 2021.
But we are also nowhere near a housing crash.
The market today is:
- More balanced
- More stable
- More strategic
Buyers have more options.
Sellers still have leverage.
And preparation is winning on both sides.
If you’re curious what your home is worth, wondering whether now is the right time to buy, or trying to build a game plan for the next move, having the right local strategy matters more than ever.
Ready to Talk?
Whether you’re:
- Buying your first home
- Moving up
- Downsizing
- Investing
- Or simply planning ahead
The right preparation can save you thousands and create better opportunities.
Reach out to the 12:45 Team to start building your strategy today.
Written By: Nate Johnson & Shawn Derrick
The 1245 Team – Keller Williams Realty
(571) 206-1448 | info@1245team.com
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