December Housing Market Update: Current Trends & What to Expect in 2026 

As December arrives and the first snowfall sets a festive mood, the real estate market enters its usual winter shift. While many families settle in for the holidays, the housing market continues to move in meaningful ways. This month’s update breaks down what’s happening now, compares trends to last year, and highlights early projections for 2026—so buyers and sellers can make confident, well-timed decisions.

Inventory Levels: A Healthier, More Balanced Market

Inventory is the heartbeat of the housing market, and this month brings several important insights:

• 2,018 homes are currently for sale

• This is a 13% month-over-month decrease, which is perfectly normal for the holiday slowdown 

• Compared to last year, inventory is up 31.4% year-over-year — a significant improvement 

Even with this progress, we’re still 20% below 2019 (pre-pandemic) inventory levels, showing supply is improving but still tight.

2026 Projection: Inventory is expected to increase an additional 16%, bringing us much closer to a fully balanced market.

What this means:
More choices for buyers. More serious, motivated buyers for sellers. A healthier market overall. 

Contracts & Closings: Predictably Slower, but Steady

• Homes under contract are down 9.5% month-over-month

• 680 homes closed in the past 30 days (a 12% decline)

This slowdown is seasonal—not a sign of weak demand.

National data shows that total 2025 home sales were up 0.3% year-over-year, confirming a stable demand trend.

2026 Projection: Total sales are expected to rise 9.7%, fueled by improving inventory and buyer confidence.

Market Balance: Months of Inventory, Pricing, and Reductions

• The region currently has 2.5 months of inventory, still technically a seller’s market.

• Yet the overall experience feels more balanced: buyers are winning occasional concessions, and sellers are pricing competitively.

• List-to-close price ratio: 99.5% 

• 8.5% of listings required a price reduction

• 22% were withdrawn — often due to incorrect pricing or poor presentation

Takeaway: Pricing right from day one matters more than ever.

Days on Market: The Median Tells the True Story

• Average DOM: 62 days (inflated by overpriced listings)

• Median DOM: 39 days — very close to the national median of 34 days

Homes that show well and are priced correctly continue to sell in a reasonable timeframe, even during winter.

Home Values: Slow, Steady, Predictable Appreciation

• Average sales price in Northern Virginia: $572,000

• Up slightly from $562,000 last year

• 2025 appreciation: 1.4%–1.7%

This modest increase reflects a stabilizing, normalizing market—not the volatility of previous years.

2026 Appreciation Forecasts:

• NAR: 4%

• Realtor.com: 2.2%

• Zillow: 1.2%

• Redfin: 1%

All major forecasts agree on this:
Appreciation will continue, but at a steady, manageable pace.

Looking Ahead: 2026 and Beyond

Based on current data and projections, the market is expected to:

• Remain balanced and stable

• Offer more inventory for buyers

• Maintain steady values for sellers

• Avoid dramatic swings or unpredictability

The biggest advice for consumers?
Make your move based on personal timing—not fear or hype.
The market is expected to remain consistent throughout the year.

Final Thoughts

The December housing market brings encouraging signs—rising inventory, stable pricing, and positive momentum heading into 2026. Whether you're buying, selling, or simply monitoring the market, this season offers clarity and confidence.

Warm holiday wishes to you and your family as we close out the year. May this season bring peace, joy, and renewed optimism for the year ahead. 

If you’d like a personalized market analysis or want to talk about your real estate goals for 2026, I’m always here to help.

💬 Thinking About Making a Move? 

Whether you’re considering buying before rates rise again or prepping your home for a spring sale, the 1245 Team can help you plan your next step strategically.

Get Instant Home Value - Click here → https://bit.ly/47SyDjw

Written By: Shawn Derrick & Nate Johnson
The 1245 Team – Keller Williams Realty
Serving Northern Virginia, Fredericksburg & Maryland

(571) 477-1245

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